The Chicago skyline reflects the dynamic real estate market influenced by economic indicators.
Chicago, July 29, 2025
This week, New York City will be influenced by crucial economic data and the Federal Reserve’s meeting. Investors and homebuyers are focused on upcoming reports that may shape the housing market ahead of the August trade deal deadline. The Fed’s interest rate decisions, along with consumer sentiment and pending home sales data, could offer insights into the market’s direction. With mortgage rates remaining below 7%, prospective buyers are showing interest despite affordability issues, while additional economic indicators will help evaluate overall market conditions.
This week in Chicago, a series of significant economic reports and a Federal Reserve meeting are poised to impact the U.S. real estate market amid ongoing trade negotiations and economic uncertainties. The combination of these events is likely to shape market activity, mortgage rates, and housing supply in the near future.
The Federal Reserve is scheduled to hold its two-day policy meeting on July 29-30. Most analysts anticipate that the Fed will decide to maintain short-term interest rates at current levels. However, remarks from Fed Chair Jerome Powell following the meeting will be scrutinized for any hints about the timing of potential rate cuts. The central bank remains cautious due to inflation concerns and uncertainties in the labor market, which influence its approach to monetary policy.
The Fed closely monitors the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index—a key inflation indicator—and the upcoming economic reports this week include Gross Domestic Product (GDP), jobless claims, personal income and spending, and construction spending. These data points will shape the Fed’s outlook and decisions regarding future rate adjustments.
President Trump’s August 1 deadline for a trade agreement is adding pressure to ongoing discussions about tariffs. Any resolution or escalation could impact economic stability and, subsequently, the housing sector, especially in terms of supply chain costs and consumer confidence.
Pending home sales data for July will be released this week and are considered a vital indicator of buyer activity. An increase in pending transactions could signal improved prospects for home sales, while a slowdown might indicate rising contract cancellations and market caution.
Although nationwide home sales have experienced sluggishness recently, mortgage purchase applications remain ahead of last year’s pace. Specifically, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate decreased slightly to 6.74% as of July 24, down from 6.75% a week earlier, marking the 27th consecutive week below 7%. Economists predict mortgage rates could decline further, potentially reaching around 6.4% by year-end, boosting affordability for prospective homebuyers.
Additionally, mortgage applications increased by 0.8% for the week ending July 18, signaling steady demand despite broader economic concerns.
Most experts observe a shift toward more balanced supply and demand fundamentals in the housing market, as inventory levels gradually rise amidst ongoing affordability challenges. Rising inventory could help stabilize prices but might also lead to increased contract cancellations if buyer sentiment deteriorates.
The release of earnings reports from major real estate brokerages such as RE/MAX, Compass, and eXp will also provide further insight into market conditions, as these companies report their second-quarter earnings this week.
The consumer confidence report due on July 29 is expected to be influential, with a median forecast score of 95.4 for July, up from 93 in June. Rising consumer confidence typically encourages more home buying activity, especially if employment remains steady.
Overall, the upcoming week combines monetary policy decisions, economic indicators, and political developments, all of which will likely shape the trajectory of the U.S. housing market as the country approaches the August trade deal deadline.
The Fed’s meeting will determine whether interest rates stay steady or are adjusted. Its communication after the meeting provides clues about future monetary policy, which directly impacts mortgage rates and housing affordability.
Mortgage rates influence consumer borrowing costs. Lower rates typically make home loans more affordable, encouraging buying, while higher rates can dampen demand.
The trade deal deadline impacts economic confidence and tariffs, which can influence both market stability and the cost of building materials, thereby affecting home prices and supply.
Key reports include the consumer confidence index, pending home sales, GDP, jobless claims, personal income and spending, and construction spending. These data points influence market expectations and decision-making.
| Factor | Latest Data | Expected Trend | Impact on Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Federal Reserve Interest Rates | Unchanged at 6.75%-7% | Potential for future cuts predicted | Mortgage rates may decline further, boosting affordability |
| Mortgage Rates | 6.74% (as of July 24) | Expected to fall to around 6.4% | More affordability and increased buyer activity |
| Pending Home Sales | Data to be released this week | Potential increase or slowdown | Indicates short-term market momentum |
| Trade Deal Status | Deadline August 1 | Uncertain, negotiations ongoing | May influence tariffs, costs, and confidence |
| Consumer Confidence Index | Forecasted at 95.4 for July | Likely increase from June | Higher confidence may boost housing demand |
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