News Summary
As Arizona readies for the upcoming monsoon season, hopes are high for above-normal rainfall after a notably disappointing dry season. The official monsoon period runs from June 15 to September 30, with initial forecasts indicating a 33-50% likelihood of increased precipitation. Early June has already brought unexpected rain to Phoenix, raising optimism for a wetter month and a potential alleviation of ongoing drought conditions, especially necessary given the wildfire risks presented by previous hot, dry spells.
Phoenix, Arizona – As Arizona prepares for the upcoming monsoon season, hopes are high that this year’s rainfall will provide much-needed relief after the 2024 monsoon season was recorded as one of the most disappointing in history. The official monsoon period will run from June 15 to September 30, and climatologists are optimistic about the potential for above-normal rainfall, particularly after the dry conditions that have dominated the previous year.
The 2024 season yielded only approximately 1.5 inches of rain in Phoenix, well below the area’s average. Research indicates that a strong high-pressure ridge contributed to the unusually dry and hot conditions, exacerbating drought situations and increasing wildfire risks. With warmer temperatures melting snowpack sooner and drying out the landscape, many areas across Arizona experienced heightened risks for wildfires.
Excitement for the upcoming wet season is boosted by early rainfall recorded starting June 1, 2025, when Phoenix experienced a record-breaking shower of 0.24 inches at Sky Harbor Airport, shattering a century-old record for that date. Contributing to this trend, the city has already received measurable rainfall on two additional days this month, totaling 0.45 inches. In contrast, the average expected rainfall for June is typically around 0.01 inches, indicating a promising start to the monsoon.
As the monsoon season approaches, climatologists indicate that predicting its intensity and duration remains challenging. Current forecasts estimate a 33-50% likelihood of above-average precipitation during the monsoon months of July, August, and September, alongside a 40-60% chance for above-normal temperatures. East-central Arizona is particularly highlighted for a higher likelihood of increased rainfall, while Yuma is expected to experience near-normal conditions this summer.
The need for a successful monsoon season is emphasized by the ongoing drought conditions affecting several regions of the southwestern United States, including parts of southeastern California, southern Nevada, and southern Arizona. Experts assert that beneficial monsoon rains can help alleviate some of the dry conditions plaguing these areas and lessen the chances of devastating wildfires.
The monsoon can be complex to forecast due to the reliance on various atmospheric conditions such as moisture levels, rising warm air, and atmospheric instability. Climatologists are confident in estimating that normal monsoon seasons typically result in about 10 days of measurable rainfall for Phoenix, with total rainfall ranging between two inches in lower desert areas and up to 16 inches in mountainous regions.
While early June rainfall brings hope, climatologists emphasize the variability inherent in monsoon forecasting. The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle plays a significant role, with neutral conditions currently observed, indicating that the presence of La Niña during the winter season led to the warmer, drier conditions preceding the monsoon. The timing and intensity of storm systems also depend on the positional shifts of the high-pressure ridge over the Four Corners region.
Forecasts for Phoenix indicate a 43% chance of above-normal precipitation during the monsoon season, providing an encouraging prospect amidst what has been a challenging climate landscape. Cities such as Tucson, Flagstaff, Prescott, Kingman, and Show Low are also anticipated to receive above-normal rainfall, enhancing hopes for a more fruitful monsoon season.
As the official start date approaches, residents and officials alike will be monitoring weather patterns closely, waiting to see if this monsoon season can live up to its potential and bring relief to Arizona’s parched lands.
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Additional Resources
- Azcentral: When Does Arizona Monsoon Season Start?
- Phoenix New Times: Wettest Phoenix Monsoon Seasons on Record
- Azfamily: Historic Rainfall Kicks Off June in Arizona
- ABC15: Big Changes as Rare June Storm Rolls into Arizona
- New York Times: Phoenix Rain Weather
- Wikipedia: Monsoon
- Google Search: Arizona Weather Monsoon Season
- Google Scholar: Arizona Monsoon Season
- Encyclopedia Britannica: Monsoon
- Google News: Arizona Monsoon
